Remittances, Debt Service Payments and Economic Growth in Nigeria

Abstract

The study investigates the intricate relationship between the effects of remittances (REMIT) and debt service payments (DSP) on economic growth (RGDP) as well as other key variables, external reserve (ER), foreign direct investment (FDI), and external debt (EXTD) on economic growth (RGDP) in Nigeria from 1995 to 2021. Various statistical techniques, such as Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) tests and ARDL, were used. The result indicates the existence of a positive correlation between RGDP and FDI; DSP and ER exhibit a moderate negative correlation, while REMIT and DSP show a strong negative correlation. ER and REMIT indicate a correlation, while EXTD and ER indicate a negative correlation. All variables are I(1) and the ARDL Bound test for co-integration indicates that a long-run relationship exists between dependent and independent variables. ARDL estimation shows that only the coefficient of external debt is significant. The R² shows that 84% of the variation in RGDP is explained by the independent variables. The test for autocorrelation (DW = 2.33) indicates no autocorrelation in the error term.

This study recommends that policymakers should implement measures to attract and retain foreign investments, given the positive impact of FDI on RGDP, and Policymakers should explore strategies to channel remittances into productive sectors, such as investments in infrastructure, education, and small-scale enterprises.