Drought Vulnerability Assessment in Pastoral Production System in Laisamis, Northern Kenya

Abstract

Arid and semi arid lands (ASALs) make up 80 per cent of Kenya's land area dominated by pastoral production system. The communities are faced with a number of challenges. Key among the challenges is the recurrent droughts affecting large numbers of humans and livestock. In northern Kenya, 28 major droughts have been recorded in the past 100 years. The drought frequency has increased as 4 of the 28 droughts occurred in the last 10 years.  In some parts of Kenya, droughts have been recorded in subsequent years without breaks resulting in livestock deaths and severe malnutrition. Globally, regionally, nationally and in the study area, limited specific studies on drought have been conducted. The study area is vulnerable to drought and other exacerbating biophysical and socio-economic factors. However, the magnitudes of vulnerabilities to drought and other exacerbating factors are not well understood. Development interventions have been inappropriate due to inability to assess vulnerability levels. Comprehensive studies through an integrated approach are limited in the study area. The purpose of the study is to 1. Assess the magnitude of vulnerability to drought and 2. Identify capacity gaps contributing to drought vulnerabilities. Simple random sampling was used for primary data collection through questionnaires and scheduled interviews. 384 households were interviewed in a household population of about 19,000 households. A statistical formula was used to decide on the number of households to be interviewed. The research was conducted in four villages and random sampling procedures of interviewing a household after 3 households in a transect was conducted. Tools used for primary data collection were questionnaire and scheduled interviews with experts. Secondary data was obtained from meteorological records and relevant public and development partners. The study considered various biophysical and socio-economic indicators. Principle Component Analysis (PCA) was used and weights for different indicators to calculate the household vulnerability index (HVI). The data was analysed through computer Excel and SPSS programmes. This study considered 30 socio-economic and biophysical indicators which are the main determinants of vulnerability under exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity parameters. Key determinants were selected under each parameter. The results show that 2.3 % of the households were highly vulnerable, 32.6 % were moderately vulnerable and 65.1 % less vulnerable. Apparently, majority of the households are less vulnerable, while the highly vulnerable are only 2.3 %. There is need to target the highly and moderately vulnerable with long-term sustainable drought resilience interventions. The findings can be used by development organisations for proper targeting for development interventions.