Selected Prospects for the Development of the Ukraine Economy in the Context of Wartime Demographic Transformations

Abstract

The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation has had a significant impact on the country's development dynamics. This was particularly reflected in the demographic potential: rising mortality rates, falling birth rates and the highest rates of internal and external migration since independence. Such transformations, combined with the challenges of the times, have been reflected in the economic space, both negatively and positively. This paper analyses the current demographic and economic situation, compares them with the period before the active military confrontation, and examines public attitudes and international experience in overcoming similar crises. This analysis was carried out by studying the main statistical data on the above processes. The international experience was reviewed by studying scientific publications and reports from expert organisations. The study showed that the continuation of the conflict could lead to a significant aggravation of regional disparities, the rapid development of service industries, including the digital sector and the military industry, a shift away from focussing on low value-added goods, and a crisis in sectors with low labour productivity. Although the demographic crisis will continue to deepen, it is expected to stabilise at a new level after the active phase of the war is over. The current set of prospects is generally positive but requires a proactive approach and constant review to accelerate the transformation process and strengthen the potential of the Ukrainian economy.