Analysis of Producer Price of Rice in Nigeria

Abstract

The study examined the analysis of producer price of rice in Nigeria. The specific objectives were to: examine the behaviour of producer price of rice in Nigeria; examine the government policies affecting the producer price of rice and forecast the real producer price of rice in Nigeria for the year 2020. The analytical tools used were: the three year moving average and simple regression technique. Secondary data were used for the analyses which were sourced from Food and Agriculture organisation, National Bureau of Statistics and Central Bank of Nigeria annual reports and Trade year Books. The moving average indicates an increase of 0.07% between 1985 and 1986. Conversely, between 1987 and 1988, the real producer price of rice decreased by -0.05%. The real producer price of rice was forecast to be ₦1, 290.75 per tonne by the year 2020. The volatility in the real producer price of rice over the years was as a result of different government policy interventions in the Nigerian rice industry. Therefore, it was recommended that local production should be encouraged at all level, government should pursue policies that discourage large importation of cheap rice into the country, and price stabilization policies such as minimum farm gate prices should be introduced.