Financial Distress Comparative Analysis of Japanese Electronic Manufacturer after Financial Global Crisis 2008 Using Altman, Ohlson, and Zmijewski Model

Abstract

The aim of this study is want to know which bankruptcy prediction models is the most suitable to be used for predicting financial distress of Japanese electronic manufacture company after global financial crisis 2008. There are three different bankruptcy predictors namely The Altman Z Score Model (Multiple Discriminant Analysis), The Ohslon Y Score Model (logit analysis) and The Zmijewski X Score Model (probit analysis) that used in this study. Using financial consolidation report data from fiscal year 2009 - 2015 of Japanese electronic manufacture company which listing in Tokyo Stock Exchange in 2016 period by matched-pair sampling. To decide the best model, an analysis will be conducted based on accuracy and error type I and type II rates of that three models and using descriptive statistic of SPSS ver.23. Finally, this study shows that the Ohlson Y Score Model is the best prediction model because having superior accuracy which 62.14% while Altman Z Score only have 60.71% and Zmijewski X Score have 53.57%