Evaluation of the Causal Relationship between Export and GDP in the Northern Region of Vietnam

Abstract

Exports and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) are important factors to help create jobs, reduce poverty, increase budget revenues, develop markets, promote economic restructuring towards positively and contributing to economic development in general and in Northwest Vietnam in particular. Meanwhile, there is a close relationship between export and GDP. In order to improve export efficiency and GDP, the causal assessment of these two factors is absolutely necessary. This paper will analyze the status of exports and GDP, and then use the Granger causality test to test the causal relationship between exports and GDP. Also consider causality in the short or long term or both in the short and long term. From that result to confirm whether exports really affect GDP.