Time Series Analysis on Paddy Rice Production in Ghana

Abstract

The study assessed time series analysis on paddy rice production in Ghana. The research attempted to investigate the trend nature of rice paddy production in Ghana with historic data from 1961 to 2015 and hence model for future statistics using the Box-Jenkins methodology of time series analysis. In the descriptive statistics it was revealed that the skewness and kurtosis is positive indicating that most of the values are concentrated on the left of the mean and peaked. Also the data can be best described to follow an exponential growth trend however not stationary and had to be differenced. The ARIMA (0, 1, 2) model estimated was found accurate and hence forecast made for 2016-2020.The result obtained from this research should serve as a guide to investigate the trend of production. It is further recommended for the model to be reviewed over time and re-estimated when necessary.